According to a recent Communications Earth & Environment study, higher temperatures have been linked to increased food prices in over 120 countries between 1996 and 2021. Specifically, the researchers found that above-average temperatures in a given month corresponded to 0.9-3.2% higher food prices in the following months. This is likely because heat stress reduces crop yields.
If global emissions remain high, modelling shows climate-induced food price inflation could exceed 4% annually by 2060. While future projections are uncertain, the study’s estimates for 2035 are more reliable – showing warming could be adding 0.3-1.2% to food prices annually in just over a decade.
The implications of this are deeply troubling. Rising food costs disproportionately impact the poor and vulnerable, exacerbating malnutrition and hunger. This threatens to undo hard-won progress toward eliminating poverty and achieving food security.
But these dire outcomes are not inevitable if we act decisively now. Solutions exist – from helping farmers adapt practices to better withstand heat stress to curbing emissions and building climate-smart food systems. The challenge is significant, but so is our capacity for ingenuity and cooperation when faced with existential threats.
We have the tools and seasonal warnings to rise to this climate crisis. We need the collective will to deploy them at the speed and scale necessary. Our future food stability depends on the choices we make today.
Bapon (SHM) Fakhruddin, PhD
Water and Climate Leader| Strategic Investment Partnerships and Co-Investments| Professor| EW4ALL| Board Member| Chair- CODATA TG| Award Winner (SDG 2021, EWS 2025)
The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Food Prices
Bapon (SHM) Fakhruddin, PhD 