The UAE’s terrain is shaped by wind rather than water flows, presenting significant obstacles to accurate flood modeling. Instead of rivers, water flows along dune formations in an interconnected network of surface ponds. A study by UAE University found that predicting upstream dune absorption is impacted by factors like groundwater at 2-5m depth varying soil infiltration rates from 10-50mm/hr. This makes measuring catchment infiltration rates exceptionally complex.
Moreover, the landscape is highly dynamic underwater forces. Researchers estimate that 10-20% of dunes see significant erosion and sediment transport in major floods, altering flow paths. Over 600 square kilometers of urban areas risk dune migration impacting drainage. Urban landscapes in the UAE lack stable outflow channels, while soil sealing increases runoff volumes 4-6 times based on hydrologic models. Intermittent rainfall makes drainage systems vulnerable to sediment blockages (37% of Dubai’s network was blocked after just one event). More detail about modeling complexity can be found in David Kennewell’s research.
Despite this, solutions are possible through integrated catchment management approaches tailored to the unique UAE environment. For example, Dubai has implemented permeable urban landscaping and constructed massive underground drainage tunnels for high sediment flows.
However, robust flood modeling and forecasting remain the backbone of effective mitigation. This requires seamlessly integrating meteorological, ocean, climate, and hydrological data using high-performance computing and AI technologies.
Bapon (SHM) Fakhruddin, PhD
Water and Climate Leader| Strategic Investment Partnerships and Co-Investments| Professor| EW4ALL| Board Member| Chair- CODATA TG| Award Winner (SDG 2021, EWS 2025)
Navigating Flood Modeling Challenges in the Unique Terrain of the UAE
Bapon (SHM) Fakhruddin, PhD 