The maritime transportation network is one of the critical infrastructure systems whose disruption significantly impacts the economy, security, and overall well-being of society.  Lessons learned from geo-hazards like earthquakes, tsunami, liquefaction, storms and severe climate events and other natural disasters due to climate change have dramatically demonstrated the vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused. These fragile and critical nurseries for port infrastructure and the environment demand a high level of protection from the effects of multi-hazards.

Aon NZ Ltd commissioned Tonkin & Taylor Ltd to carry out a tsunami characterisation assessment for ports in New Zealand owned by The Port Collective to assist in the determination of whether their existing insurance cover is sufficient for a significant local tsunami.  The study assessed the critical nearshore tsunami amplitude, momentum and velocity for ports within The Port Collective for New Zealand for two near field earthquake scenarios using boundary condition information of maximum tsunami amplitude at the coast and the empirical methods proposed by ASCE 7 (2016).  Information has been provided along transects perpendicular to the tsunami wave crest to use damage and loss estimation for the Port infrastructure.

sea

Natural hazards can cause serious disruption to societies and their transport infrastructure networks. The impact of extreme hazard events is largely dependent on the resilience of societies and their networks. Resilience of critical transport infrastructure to extreme weather events, such as flood, heavy rainfall or drought, is one of the most demanding challenges for both government and society. Extreme weather is a phenomenon that causes threats to the well-functioning of the infrastructure. The impacts of various levels of extreme weather on the infrastructure varies throughout globe. These impacts are witnessed through changes in seasons and extreme temperatures, humidity, extreme or prolonged precipitation or drought, extreme wind, and thunderstorms. The extreme weather events may result in disasters such as flooding, drought, or wild fires. These present a range of challenges to the operational resilience of critical transport infrastructure.

Since 1970, the term “resilience” into the study of ecosystems, resiliency-related research has been exponentially increasing. The concept of resilience has expanded to different disciplines, including (1) engineering resilience, or the ability of the system to resume normal functionality after shock; (2) social resilience, or capacity of humans to anticipate and plan for the future; (3) ecological resilience, or the speed of return to stability domain; (4) material resilience, or the ability of material to absorb energy when elastically deformed; and (5) psychology resilience, or the ability of an individual to withstand stress and bounce back or recover from traumatic situations. However, engineering resilience will be important when discussing drainage or transport infrastructure systems. Resilience, when applied to infrastructure systems, implies the ability of such infrastructure systems (including their interconnected ecosystems and social systems) to absorb disturbance and recover after a disturbance.

The economic and societal relevance of the dependency and resilience of critical transport infrastructure is obvious: infrastructure malfunctions and outages can have far reaching consequences and impacts on economy and society. The cost of developing and maintaining critical transport infrastructure is high if they are expected to have a realistic functional and economic life (i.e. 50+ years). Hence, future extreme weather events have to be taken into account when considering protection measures, mitigation measures and adaption measures to reflect actual and predicted instances of critical transport infrastructure failures.

Over the last decades, climate change and the constant growth of cities and urban areas have had a considerable impact on urban drainage system. With fast increase in population and infrastructures, the infiltration capability of rainwater reduced subsequently making the urban areas more vulnerable to urban flood in the presence of heavy rain events. Climate change have increased the vulnerability more by changing/increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of rain events. All these circumstances have caused considerable increments in both wastewater and rainwater within cities, thereby increasing the risk of combined sewer overflow and flood events. This could be a major catastrophe for water quality as well as overall water resources manage. The urban water cycle is composed by different stages that include collection, transport, purification and conditioning for human needs, distribution, consumption, wastewater collection, depuration, and finally reuse or disposal in the natural environment. The lessons learned paper focuses an integrated model for real time control design and its application to consider the uncertainty of climate change and extreme weather events and strength and weakness of existing real time control model for urban drainage models.

This great little video succinctly demonstrates why we keep on trying to approach river and water problems on a catchment scale.

22 Nov Earthquake!

Japan Earthquake

us_navy_110315-n-2653b-148_a_tug_boat_is_among_debris_in_ofunato_japan_following_a_9-0_magnitude_earthquake_and_subsequent_tsunamiOn Tuesday the 22nd of November the residents of Fukushima experienced a significant day. A 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck Japan’s Honshu island on Tuesday. Japan has sent out tsunami warnings across the areas of Fukushima and Miyagi, the residents brace for the worst after the 2011 Japan tsunami. It is expected that the waves could be as high as 3 meters in height. Believe it or not some locals are still left living in temporary shelters from 2011’s disaster, most thought they wouldn’t survive this time.

New Zealand Earthquake

On Tuesday evening places not far from Christchurch we rocked by a 5.7 magnitude earthquake.The quake which struck at 6:13 pm had 4300 reports from around the area saying they had felt the earthquake within 30 minutes. The aftershocks appeared in the night leaving families with no sleep and some with not much shelter. A lot of houses have been damaged in a way, most in places like North Canterbury have been severely damaged.

new-zealand

The Sendai Framework, a landmark international framework adopted in 2015, calls for a shift from managing disasters to managing risks. This requires a more holistic approach to risks and a stronger focus on risk-creation processes, and it presents opportunities to approach disaster risk reduction (DRR) as an integral part of sustainable development.

12552996_10206144906243762_6994267657060727511_nThe UNISDR Science and Technology Conference in January 2016 on the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) is a major event to move to the implementation phase of the framework. The event promotes a global conversation among scientific institutions and policymakers on priorities for science and technology, and on coordination for effective implementation. More than 1,000 participants from the science and technology communities, policymakers, practitioners, and researchers from all geographical regions at local, national, regional, and international levels get together to endorse the road map and share knowledge for the SFDRR implementation.AAEAAQAAAAAAAARzAAAAJGEwZTRjMjg4LTdiMTItNDdlZS04ZDMwLWU2Mzk1ZGY2M2E4ZQ

The SFDRR was endorsed last March 2015. There has been much discussion on what the SFDRR encompasses, and it is obviously difficult to cover all aspects of DRR in short documents. There has been discussion what would be the next after the SFDRR. The journey started with the Yokohama Declaration (1994) and moved onto the Hyogo Framework (2005). Perhaps for the next 15 years it will be the SFDRR.

In my opinion it is a never-ending process that is always evolving. For example, following a tsunami in Hawaii in 1868, experts observed that a key problem was the lack of communication from the Civil Defense to end users. As someone working on natural hazard early warning systems in this century, that same problem still exists in most countries, and we still keep playing our blame games like musical chairs.

Prof Glanz mentioned in his “Spirit of Sendai”:

“The caveat ‘as appropriate’ is, to me, the proverbial ‘fly in the soup’ that allows actors responsible in theory at least for effective DRR to see the SFDRR as a permit to continue along the ‘business as usual’ pathway until the next climate, water, weather, or geohazard reminds them that maybe developing a ‘culture of prevention’ was a more appropriate pathway to have chosen.”

Science has gone though a highly advanced stage but there is still more to go. Unfortunately much of the scientific information is never incorporated into the operational domain for decision-making, and very little has been incorporated down to the community level to respond to disaster risks. There is and will be uncertainty in scientific knowledge. Similarly uncertainty exists in all aspects of human decision-making. People take chances in every decision-making process. Thus there is no harm to applying uncertain scientific knowledge for decision-making. If the probability is 60%, the uncertainty is 40%. But by using 60% certainty, many disaster impacts could be avoided. In the law there is a concept of “foreseeability”. It refers to actions for which the outcomes could and therefore should have been foreseen. Foreseeability is a qualitative expression of probability.

The conference organized a high-level panel to introduce the UNISDR Science and Technology road map for the implementation of the Sendai Framework. Discussions on the scientific and technical partnership to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework included:

  • understanding disaster risk, risk assessment and early warning;
  • leveraging science through capacity development and research; and
  • use of science, technology and innovation tools, methods, and standards to support the implementation and reporting of the Sendai Framework to develop recommendations and an action plan to implement the S&T roadmap.

The road map presents the expected outcomes under each of the four priority actions outlined in the Sendai Framework, and proposes key actions that the UNISDR Science and Technology Partnership will undertake to fulfill the expected outcomes and to achieve the goal of Sendai Framework. It also highlights ways for monitoring progress and reviewing needs.

The SFDRR recognises the importance of science and technology for disaster risk reduction. There is a strong call for science in the Sendai framework. It particularly calls for access to reliable data, capacity building to interpret and use this data, and promoting better understanding of the components of risks – vulnerability, exposure and hazards. It also asks for the development of regular risk assessments, capacities to analyse risk and use data and information in policy planning, and for the promotion of a strong interface between science, policy and practitioners for evidence-based decision-making.

We believe under the SFDRR we will able to see the application of broad-range generation and integration of hazard risk information of all timescales between early warning information providers and users. Multi-hazard early warning systems, through sustained multi-stakeholder dialogue with the participation of mass-based organizations, should ensure that early warning information products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users. We will encourage climate and hydrological forecast applications for mitigating risks in various climate-sensitive sectors, including but not limited to, agriculture, irrigation, and health. Users should be able to evaluate the potential impacts and develop a plan of action in response to the climate and hydrological outlooks. Inter-agency coordination should promote sharing information, integrated policies, sectoral plans, and programs for dealing with potential impacts of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. There is a process of understanding risks posed and the opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate.

This report is a summary review on recommended practice, law and policy on hydro meteorological activities in the global context. The World Meteorological Organization, which is the international leader of the development of law and policy on hydrology and meteorology. They provide recommendations and suggest good practices through a manual and a guide for different sectors on water and weather concerns. This report focuses on law and policy on hydro meteorological activities in Vietnam and discusses the general law and policy developed through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) according to five thematic areas of hydrometeorology cited below.

  • Issues related to the systematic management of hydro-meteorological activities, with a focus on the basis of international best practices and upcoming trends in the context of climate change. A unified and systematic state management issues of the hydro-meteorological activities;
  • Recommended options and solutions for management of hydro-meteorological forecasts, the roles and responsibilities of the state hydro-meteorological agencies in warning and forecasting natural disaster, and socialization of common weather forecast services provided by different organizations and individuals;
  • Regulations on hydro-meteorological technical safety sites to ensure conformity with the social-economic development and sharing of international experiences in hydro-meteorological state management to ensure the technical conditions for the meteorological operations;
  • Recommend management of hydro-meteorological data and information sharing in accordance with international common practices and trends;
  • Review and analyze organizational systems of forecast and regulation of hydro meteorological data management in national hydro-meteorological agencies and their state management agencies from the central to local levels.

The Ministry of Public Works and Transportation (MPWT) has increasingly focused its attention on extreme climate events and their impacts on Cambodia’s road network. The climate change impacts will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms, and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. Under the ADB-funded “Climate Resilience for Provincial Road Improvement Project” (CR-PRIP), MPWT aims to promote climate adaptation and environmentally friendly roads. The project will ensure the robustness, safety, pass-ability, and durability of roads by setting up design standards, safety measures, and emergency plans.

Conducting regular inventories of road damage is essential to emergency maintenance and identifies potential vulnerabilities in the road sectors. Of all the possible types of spending on the road network, preventive maintenance is the most beneficial. This is because a small amount of money on timely maintenance can preserve the huge initial expenditure that was made at the time of construction. Maintenance expenditure saves money in two ways. Firstly, it reduces the overall costs to the road agency (in this case the MPWT and the Ministry of Rural Development). Secondly, it reduces the costs to the road users. Maintenance is done to keep the vehicle operating cost lower. There will be fewer accidents and the road will reach its design life when properly maintained. It will also have a satisfactory rate of economic return.

Presently road maintenance in Cambodia is divided into three main categories:

  • Periodic maintenance: Fix the damage when it occurs
  • Routine maintenance: Anticipate the damage and plan ahead to fix it
  • Emergency maintenance: Large-scale repairs for significant damage

Historically, the Provincial Public Works Department (DPWT) of MPWT has undertaken road maintenance. The Road Maintenance Department of MPWT carries out the periodic and routine maintenance, and the Road Infrastructure Department under the MPWT is responsible for emergency maintenance and the rehabilitation program in collaboration with the provincial department. Other than DPWT, private enterprise and construction units from the police and armed forces also work together for road maintenance. The Road Maintenance Department was created under a World Bank project in 2005 but has not yet become fully functional or integrated with the proper staff. The regular data collection that is carried out by the department are roughness with visual assessment, deflection survey, and traffic volume.

The department uses the Road Management and Decision Support System (RMDS) to collect and analyze data. The data is then exported to the HDM-4 model. The department uses HDM-4 for annual and 3-year planning for road maintenance. The HDM-4 could also be utilized for emergency road maintenance activities. In contrast, the Road Infrastructure Department carries out traditional surveys using DPWT to collect flood or other damage data for emergency maintenance. Here the existing damage assessment form has been upgraded with detailed information for enhancing the maintenance system and proper accountability.

Hydro-climate extremes are critical in considering the possible adverse impacts of climate change and variability in Bhutan. It affects the total runoff volume, infrastructure, aquatic species, forests, hydropower generation, agriculture and more importantly, human lives. Therefore, it is imperative for water resources engineers and planners to consider hydro-climate extreme analyses in their long- and short-term planning. Climate impact research on the water sector in Bhutan is very important for developing a ‘climate-adaptive’ National IWRM Plan, River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) and National Irrigation Master Plan (NIMP). This study involves hydro-meteorological data projections based on the latest climate change scenarios (Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5)). The CMIP5 model data has been downscaled for Bhutan, and a basin-wide hydrological model (ArcSWAT) has been set up to evaluate future water availability in each basin.

The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change by using a multi-modeling ensemble of four GCMs (i.e., the CMIP5 project database) for the historical period (1970-2010) and future period (2041-2095) on the hydrological regime of Bhutan’s rivers. The study conducted bias correction of GSM (CMIP5) data using a statistical downscaling model for river basin modeling and by setting up a hydrological model for updating the hydro-meteorological data projections based on the latest climate change scenarios. The climate data record for Bhutan is limited, e.g. the observed precipitation data is only available from 1995 to 2013 for a few stations. Due to these limitations, this study used Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) data. The APHRODITE project created a grid to record daily precipitation with a high resolution 0.5° over the entire Asian domain.

For this study, 21 grid points covering the whole of Bhutan were identified. Daily rainfall and mean temperature data from 1976 to 2005 were extracted for all of these stations. These data were considered as observed historical data for this study. Bias correction using the empirical quantile mapping method was applied to climate input data provided by the GCM. Based on the correlation coefficient (R2) values between bias-corrected GCM and the APHRODITE monthly datasets for average temperature, most of the grids in Bhutan show a very good correlation (0.94) for the period 1976-2005. Similarly, the R2 values for precipitation for most of the grids also show good results.

The hydrological study analyzes multi-model precipitation extremes over Bhutan for historic (1979-2013) and future (2040–2099) climate scenarios by using the CMIP5 simulations data. The simulations of daily data from four global climate models (GCM) have been used. This study assumed a constant atmospheric CO2 concentration within SWAT throughout all model simulations. The effect of CO2 on plant growth and transpiration, and thus ET, can be significant or moderate for highly vegetated watersheds. Therefore, the decreases in stream flow and hydrologic components are assumed to be conservative estimates and would be higher than if modeled with the effects of CO2. Additionally, SWAT has a simplified groundwater algorithm where groundwater contributes to stream flow only if the water stored in the shallow or deep aquifer exceeds a specified water table height.

The SWAT model was simulated for the predicted future climate for 2055 to 2090s under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for BCC-CSm1-1 and CCSM4 GCMs. It was assumed that there is no land use change in the study area. It is also assumed that the wind, solar radiation and relative humidity remain the same as in the base period. Hydrological model results for stream flow at the outlet of each catchment have been aggregated to mean annual values, i.e. the average of each day of the year for every year. The glacier-covered areas of the model are treated as constant; from the simulation result, the average basin yield will increase from 5% to 56% during the period 2055-2095. This increase in yields results from an increase in both precipitation and temperature. Due to higher temperatures, the snowfall amount decreases significantly, shifting the permanent snowline to higher altitudes. Base flow during the dry season will increase for all of the future periods under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. With CCSM4, there will be a shift of flow pattern by one month. The peak will shift from August to July, which is due to the shifting rainfall pattern projected by CCSM4. There will be an increase in peak flow during July and August. The overall water availability changes are shown in the table below. correlation (0.74) for that period. The bias analysis shows that GCM data strongly overestimates the observed

data (APHRODITE) in the months April to October. From June to September, this bias crosses 10mm per day. After performing bias correction, future temperature and rainfall are projected using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Future periods, including the 2030s (2011-2040), 2060s (2041-2070) and 2090s (2071-2100), are used for this stud

Vanuatu comprises over 80 islands, of which 68 are inhabited, and has a population of around 240,000 people. It has a combined land area of 14,760 km2 and a maritime exclusive economic zone of 680,000 km2. Like most small island nations, the coastal zone is the hub of economic activities in Vanuatu. The vast majority of the population is concentrated in the narrow strip of the coastal zone, as most islands are volcanic with a mountainous terrain in the interior of most islands. Nearly 75% of the population live in rural areas and engage in subsistence, rain-fed agriculture. While coastal fisheries contribute significantly to food security, many life-supporting coastal ecosystems are increasingly under stress from climate change and other human-induced impacts.

Vanuatu experiences severe tropical cyclones during the summer months of December to February; long dry spells associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cool phase March to November, and frequent earthquakes and seismic activity due to its location along the “Pacific Ring of Fire”. According to the Commonwealth Vulnerability Index, Vanuatu ranks as the world’s most vulnerable country due to its high exposure to natural disasters, scattered island geography, narrow economic base, inadequate communication and transportation networks, and limited capacity to cope with disasters, including climate change. In the Pacific region, the highest concentration of cyclones occurs in the area of Vanuatu; which experiences cyclonic activities most years.

The impacts of climate change have serious consequences on the coastal environment in Vanuatu. The bio-geophysical effects include coastal erosion, increased flooding, loss of coastal lowlands and wetlands and salinization of surface and groundwater. The loss and degradation of coastal wetlands impact on the livelihoods and nutrition of coastal dwellers that depend on the ecosystem services from intact and healthy mangroves, coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems. In addition, the effects of climate change on the socio-economy of the country include the risks to human life and health, loss of property and infrastructure, deterioration of agriculture, tourism, recreation and loss of livelihoods. These vulnerabilities threaten the way of life of coastal communities.

With respect to climate change governance, Vanuatu has responded positively to the climate change challenges and has established a National Advisory Board (NAB) with primary responsibility for coordinating climate change policies, programs and projects. The secretariat of NAB is the newly established PMU (Project Management Unit) based at the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazards Department (VMGD). To guide the implementation of effective and efficient adaptation efforts, Vanuatu has endorsed the 2012-2022 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) and the National Adaption Program for Action (NAPA). These plans provide policy recommendations; sector specific adaptation plans and outlines a systematic, long-term approach for embedding climate change adaptation into core national and sector level activities. Vanuatu has also developed a National Integrated Coastal Management Framework (NICMF) and Implementation Strategy which outlines the institutional arrangements needed for management of coastal ecosystems. These national plans and strategies provide an important framework for the development of the project design.

Vanuatu is highly vulnerable to climate change related risks. The location, geology, and climate put Vanuatu at risk of disaster regardless of climate change. However, given the potential impacts of climate change the existing vulnerabilities will enhanced. These risks are summarized in Annex 1 of the main project document.

The current projections for climate change in Vanuatu in are outlined below. In relation to coastal and marine ecosystems that changes are projected to include:

  • Increase in mean air temperature (0.4-1 degree Celsius by 2030),
  • Increasing temperature of coastal waters with increasing likelihood of the potential for coral bleaching
  • Increasing acidification of the coastal water (due to a decrease in ocean Aragonite saturation from 3.9 to 3.4 to 3.5(Ωar) by 2030)
  • Increase in sea level (5-17cm by 2030),
  • Increase in the intensity of the wet and dry seasons
  • Increase in soil erosion due to changing rainfall events
  • Less frequent, but more intense cyclones (increased wind speed and precipitation)

A ridge-to-Reef concept needs to adopt for the Vanuatu by integrating Coastal Community Climate Change Management Plans and integrated water resources management plan. In particular, the plan will focus on reducing threats to coastal and marine ecosystems, enhancing the resilience of ecosystems, disaster risk, water resources, coral reef, mangroves and seagrass beds and managing pressure on extraction of marine and coastal resources.